Heterogeneous impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on lung, colorectal and breast cancer incidence in Hungary: results from time series and panel data models.

OBJECTIVE: During the COVID-19 pandemic, health system resources were reallocated to provide care for patients with COVID-19, limiting access for others. Patients themselves also constrained their visits to healthcare providers. In this study, we analysed the heterogeneous effects of the pandemic on the new diagnoses of lung, colorectal and breast cancer in Hungary. DESIGN: Time series and panel models of quarterly administrative data, disaggregated by gender, age group and district of residence. PARTICIPANTS: Data for the whole population of Hungary between the first quarter of 2017 and the second quarter of 2021. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Number of patients newly diagnosed with lung, colorectal and breast cancer, defined as those who were hospitalised with the appropriate primary International Classification of Diseases Tenth Revision diagnosis code but had not had hospital encounters with such a code within the previous 5 years. RESULTS: The incidence of lung, colorectal and breast cancer decreased by 14.4% (95% CI 10.8% to 17.8%), 19.9% (95% CI 12.2% to 26.9%) and 15.5% (95% CI 2.5% to 27.0%), respectively, during the examined period of the pandemic, with different time patterns across cancer types. The incidence decreased more among people at least 65 years old than among the younger (p<0.05 for lung cancer and p<0.1 for colorectal cancer). At the district level, both the previously negative income gap in lung cancer incidence and the previously positive income gap in breast cancer incidence significantly narrowed during the pandemic (p<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The decline in new cancer diagnoses, caused by a combination of supply-side and demand-side factors, suggests that some cancer cases have remained hidden. It calls for action by policy makers to engage individuals with high risk of cancer more in accessing healthcare services, to diagnose the disease early and to prepare for effective management of patient pathways from diagnosis to survival or end-of-life care.

Effects of lower screening activity during the COVID-19 pandemic on breast cancer patient pathways: Evidence from the age cut-off of organized screening.

We examined the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the screening, diagnosis and treatment of breast cancer in Hungary based on administrative data until June 2021, covering three pandemic waves. After correcting for trend and seasonality, the number of mammography examinations decreased by 68% in 2020q2, was around its usual level in 2020q3 and was reduced by 20-35% throughout 2020q4-2021q2. The reduction was caused by a combination of supply-side (temporary suspensions of screening) and demand-side (lower screening participation during the pandemic waves) factors. The number of new breast cancer diagnoses and mastectomy surgeries responded with a lag, and were below their usual level by 15-30% in all quarters between 2020q2 and 2021q2, apart from 2020q4, when there was no significant difference. Using a regression discontinuity framework, we found that the partial mastectomy rate (indicative of early diagnosis) dropped more substantially in 2020q2 in the 61-65 years old age group that was just below the age cut-off of organized screening than in the 66-70 years old age group, and this difference was partially offset in 2021q1. We suggest that policymakers need to motivate the target population (by providing both information and incentives) to catch up on missed screenings.

Personalised health education against health damage of COVID-19 epidemic in the elderly Hungarian population (PROACTIVE-19): protocol of an adaptive randomised controlled clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: Early reports indicate that COVID-19 may require intensive care unit (ICU) admission in 5-26% and overall mortality can rise to 11% of the recognised cases, particularly affecting the elderly. There is a lack of evidence-based targeted pharmacological therapy for its prevention and treatment. We aim to compare the effects of a World Health Organization recommendation-based education and a personalised complex preventive lifestyle intervention package (based on the same WHO recommendation) on the outcomes of the COVID-19. METHODS: PROACTIVE-19 is a pragmatic, randomised controlled clinical trial with adaptive "sample size re-estimation" design. Hungarian population over the age of 60 years without confirmed COVID-19 will be approached to participate in a telephone health assessment and lifestyle counselling voluntarily. Volunteers will be randomised into two groups: (A) general health education and (B) personalised health education. Participants will go through questioning and recommendation in 5 fields: (1) mental health, (2) smoking habits, (3) physical activity, (4) dietary habits, and (5) alcohol consumption. Both groups A and B will receive the same line of questioning to assess habits concerning these topics. Assessment will be done weekly during the first month, every second week in the second month, then monthly. The composite primary endpoint will include the rate of ICU admission, hospital admission (longer than 48 h), and mortality in COVID-19-positive cases. The estimated sample size is 3788 subjects per study arm. The planned duration of the follow-up is a minimum of 1 year. DISCUSSION: These interventions may boost the body's cardiovascular and pulmonary reserve capacities, leading to improved resistance against the damage caused by COVID-19. Consequently, lifestyle changes can reduce the incidence of life-threatening conditions and attenuate the detrimental effects of the pandemic seriously affecting the older population. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The study has been approved by the Scientific and Research Ethics Committee of the Hungarian Medical Research Council (IV/2428- 2 /2020/EKU) and has been registered at clinicaltrials.gov ( NCT04321928 ) on 25 March 2020.